Today's board
Markets & outcomes currently held by multiple profitable Polymarket traders.
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Aligned is an analytics product. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. We surface publicly available, read-only information about how certain Polymarket traders are positioned. Past performance and current positioning do not guarantee future results. Markets can resolve against even the most profitable traders. Always do your own research. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.
| Market / Outcome | Score | Confidence | Edge / EV | Aligned | Price | Total Value | Ends | Traders |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 | High | +15% EV +4 pts edge ¼-Kelly 1.4%est. | 5 | 27¢ 3.7× payout | $57.1K | Oct 4, 2026 | 5 traders — unlock | |
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? AI read — unlock | 79 | High | +4% EV +2 pts edge ¼-Kelly 0.8%est. | 4 🐋 1 whale | 46¢ 2.2× payout | $81.5K | Nov 3, 2026 | 4 traders — unlock |
74 | Medium | +37% EV +4 pts edge ¼-Kelly 1.1%est. | 6 | 10¢ 9.7× payout | $28.7K | Nov 7, 2028 | 6 traders — unlock | |
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? AI read — unlock | 74 | High | +3% EV +2 pts edge ¼-Kelly 1.4%est. | 6 🐋 2 whales | 69¢ 1.4× payout | $226K | Sep 30, 2026 | 6 traders — unlock |
31 more aligned markets waiting
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Watchlist — thin backing
Multiple tracked traders agree here too, but with little combined capital committed. Worth watching, not conviction — treat these as early leads.
| Market / Outcome | Score | Confidence | Edge / EV | Aligned | Price | Total Value | Ends | Traders |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? AI read — unlock | 53 | Medium | +4% EV +3 pts edge ¼-Kelly 2.2%est. | 3 | 69¢ 1.4× payout | $2.8K | Dec 31, 2026 | 3 traders — unlock |
53 | Medium | +2% EV +1 pts edge ¼-Kelly 1.0%est. | 2 | 67¢ 1.5× payout | $4.5K | Dec 31, 2026 | 2 traders — unlock | |
53 | Medium | +1% EV +1 pts edge ¼-Kelly 2.1%est. | 2 | 87¢ 1.2× payout | $3.6K | Sep 13, 2026 | 2 traders — unlock | |
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? AI read — unlock | 51 | Medium | +1% EV +1 pts edge ¼-Kelly 2.1%est. | 2 | 86¢ 1.2× payout | $3.8K | Nov 3, 2026 | 2 traders — unlock |
1 more aligned market waiting
You're seeing the top 4 of 5. Unlock every alignment — plus the exact traders behind each outcome and the AI read on why they're aligned.
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