The track record.

How this is measured

• Entry is the outcome's market price the first time Aligned surfaced it as an alignment — no hindsight.
• A signal counts as a win only when its market officially resolves in favor of the aligned outcome, and a loss when it resolves against. Markets that haven't settled stay out of the hit rate entirely.
• Realized return assumes buying the aligned outcome at the entry price and holding to settlement: a win returns the remaining upside to $1, a loss returns −100%. Equal-weighted, not annualized.
• Edge, not raw hit rate, is the number to judge: the entry price is the market's own implied win probability, so underdog signals mathematically lower the raw hit rate even when they're profitable. Beating the implied probability — positive edge — is what beating the market means.
• Methodology v2 (Jul 7, 2026): the settled record proved cheap longshots (sub-25¢ entries) were where signals bled, so they no longer make the board without real smart-money conviction behind them. Signals recorded before the change stay in the all-time record above — nothing is retroactively dropped — and the "since Jul 7" figure tracks the current system on its own.
• Every market is included once it resolves — nothing is dropped or re-picked.