Resources · answers, not tips
How to read the smart money.
The questions traders ask before they trust a signal, answered the way Aligned works: from the public record, against the entry price, with the sample size stated. Every number that moves lives on the track record, not in these pages.
How to track Polymarket whales (and why one whale is not a signal)
Polymarket positions are public per wallet, so anyone can watch large traders. The useful question is not who is big, but which traders are profitable over many settlements and where they agree.
6 min read · updated 2026-09-05
Is smart money real on prediction markets? What a track record can and cannot tell you
Smart money is a testable claim, not a vibe. On prediction markets the test is simple to state and hard to fake: does a defined group beat the market's implied probability over many settled markets?
7 min read · updated 2026-09-05
How to read a Polymarket order book before you trade
The order book tells you what a price will cost you, not just what it is. Depth, spread, and the distance between the last trade and the mid decide whether an edge survives the entry.
6 min read · updated 2026-09-05
The record is the argument.
Every alignment Aligned surfaces is scored against how the market resolved, at the price it was surfaced. Read it before you read anything else here.
Aligned is an analytics product. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. We surface publicly available, read-only information about how certain Polymarket traders are positioned. Past performance and current positioning do not guarantee future results. Markets can resolve against even the most profitable traders. Always do your own research. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.