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Board
Politics
Live on the board
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Live
Aligned on:
No
Live numbers
Updated- Alignment score
- 90High
- Out of 100, with its confidence label
- Price now
- 92¢
- Each share pays $1 if No wins
- Smart-money probability
- 92%est.
- Estimated chance this outcome wins
- Edge
- +0.6 ptsest.
- Estimated probability minus the price
- EV per $1
- +1%est.
- Estimated expected value at the price now
- Traders aligned
- 7
- Profitable traders holding this outcome
- Whales
- 3
- Aligned traders with a large position or a top rank
- Capital in
- $281K
- What the aligned traders hold in it now
- Ends
- in 55 days
Price history
Breaks in the line are stretches when this bet was off the board and no price was recorded.
Show the data (176 snapshots)
| When (ET) | Price | Traders | Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 9:44 AM | 92¢ | 7 | $281K |
| Nov 7, 8:53 AM | 92¢ | 7 | $281K |
| Nov 7, 1:57 AM | 92¢ | 7 | $281.1K |
| Nov 6, 7:47 PM | 92¢ | 7 | $282.7K |
| Nov 6, 3:55 PM | 92¢ | 3 | $9.6K |
| Nov 6, 10:44 AM | 92¢ | 3 | $9.7K |
| Nov 6, 10:09 AM | 92¢ | 3 | $9.7K |
| Nov 6, 2:14 AM | 92¢ | 3 | $8K |
| Nov 5, 7:18 PM | 92¢ | 3 | $8K |
| Nov 5, 2:01 PM | 92¢ | 4 | $8.9K |
| Nov 5, 11:14 AM | 92¢ | 4 | $8.9K |
| Nov 5, 6:35 AM | 92¢ | 4 | $8.9K |
| Nov 4, 10:40 PM | 93¢ | 3 | $7.1K |
| Nov 4, 8:30 PM | 93¢ | 3 | $7.1K |
| Nov 4, 8:27 PM | 93¢ | 3 | $7.1K |
| Nov 2, 2:31 PM | 87¢ | 3 | $15.1K |
| Nov 2, 12:55 PM | 87¢ | 4 | $15.8K |
| Nov 2, 4:11 AM | 87¢ | 4 | $15.8K |
| Nov 1, 8:51 PM | 87¢ | 4 | $15.8K |
| Nov 1, 5:40 PM | 87¢ | 4 | $15.8K |
| Nov 1, 1:49 PM | 87¢ | 4 | $15.8K |
| Nov 1, 9:48 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $15K |
| Nov 1, 8:49 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $15K |
| Nov 1, 1:40 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $14.8K |
| Oct 31, 8:19 PM | 86¢ | 3 | $14.8K |
| Oct 31, 5:16 PM | 86¢ | 3 | $14.8K |
| Oct 31, 1:54 PM | 86¢ | 3 | $14.8K |
| Oct 31, 10:22 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $14.8K |
| Oct 31, 9:29 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $14.8K |
| Oct 31, 2:50 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $14.8K |
| Oct 30, 8:48 PM | 85¢ | 4 | $16K |
| Oct 30, 5:05 PM | 86¢ | 4 | $16.2K |
| Oct 30, 12:36 PM | 85¢ | 4 | $16.1K |
| Oct 30, 10:53 AM | 85¢ | 4 | $16.1K |
| Oct 30, 5:48 AM | 86¢ | 4 | $16.2K |
| Oct 29, 10:50 PM | 86¢ | 3 | $11.6K |
| Oct 29, 7:23 PM | 86¢ | 3 | $11.5K |
| Oct 29, 3:15 PM | 84¢ | 3 | $11.5K |
| Oct 29, 10:59 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 29, 9:33 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 29, 2:18 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 28, 8:16 PM | 86¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 28, 4:18 PM | 86¢ | 2 | $10K |
| Oct 28, 11:08 AM | 87¢ | 2 | $10.2K |
| Oct 28, 10:55 AM | 87¢ | 2 | $10.2K |
| Oct 28, 4:09 AM | 87¢ | 2 | $10.2K |
| Oct 27, 9:46 PM | 86¢ | 2 | $10.1K |
| Oct 27, 6:31 PM | 86¢ | 2 | $10.1K |
| Oct 27, 2:22 PM | 87¢ | 2 | $10.2K |
| Oct 27, 10:04 AM | 86¢ | 2 | $10.1K |
| Oct 27, 8:44 AM | 86¢ | 2 | $10.1K |
| Oct 27, 2:43 AM | 86¢ | 2 | $10K |
| Oct 26, 9:20 PM | 86¢ | 2 | $10K |
| Oct 26, 5:54 PM | 86¢ | 2 | $10K |
| Oct 26, 1:34 PM | 86¢ | 2 | $10K |
| Oct 26, 10:55 AM | 86¢ | 2 | $10K |
| Oct 26, 7:26 AM | 86¢ | 2 | $10K |
| Oct 26, 1:23 AM | 86¢ | 2 | $10K |
| Oct 25, 8:39 PM | 86¢ | 2 | $10K |
| Oct 25, 6:29 PM | 86¢ | 2 | $10K |
| Oct 25, 3:59 PM | 86¢ | 2 | $10K |
| Oct 25, 1:33 PM | 86¢ | 3 | $12.3K |
| Oct 25, 9:56 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $12.2K |
| Oct 25, 9:01 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $13.2K |
| Oct 25, 5:40 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $13.7K |
| Oct 25, 12:51 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $13.8K |
| Oct 24, 8:12 PM | 86¢ | 4 | $15.1K |
| Oct 24, 5:56 PM | 85¢ | 4 | $15K |
| Oct 24, 3:30 PM | 85¢ | 4 | $15K |
| Oct 24, 1:00 PM | 86¢ | 4 | $13.3K |
| Oct 24, 9:37 AM | 86¢ | 4 | $13.3K |
| Oct 24, 8:30 AM | 86¢ | 4 | $13.3K |
| Oct 24, 5:35 AM | 86¢ | 4 | $13.3K |
| Oct 24, 1:07 AM | 86¢ | 4 | $13.3K |
| Oct 23, 8:45 PM | 86¢ | 4 | $13.3K |
| Oct 23, 6:02 PM | 87¢ | 4 | $13.4K |
| Oct 23, 3:00 PM | 86¢ | 3 | $12.3K |
| Oct 23, 10:54 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $12.1K |
| Oct 23, 9:09 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $12.1K |
| Oct 23, 5:56 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $12.3K |
| Oct 23, 12:59 AM | 88¢ | 3 | $12.4K |
| Oct 22, 8:11 PM | 86¢ | 3 | $12.3K |
| Oct 22, 5:39 PM | 86¢ | 3 | $12.1K |
| Oct 22, 2:00 PM | 88¢ | 3 | $11.6K |
| Oct 22, 9:33 AM | 88¢ | 2 | $10.3K |
| Oct 22, 9:08 AM | 88¢ | 2 | $10.3K |
| Oct 22, 3:26 AM | 88¢ | 2 | $10.3K |
| Oct 21, 9:56 PM | 88¢ | 2 | $10.3K |
| Oct 21, 7:41 PM | 88¢ | 2 | $10.3K |
| Oct 21, 4:33 PM | 88¢ | 3 | $11.6K |
| Oct 21, 12:59 PM | 89¢ | 2 | $10.4K |
| Oct 21, 9:32 AM | 88¢ | 3 | $11.6K |
| Oct 21, 7:54 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $11.5K |
| Oct 21, 2:04 AM | 86¢ | 3 | $11.3K |
| Oct 20, 9:02 PM | 86¢ | 4 | $12K |
| Oct 20, 6:42 PM | 88¢ | 4 | $12.2K |
| Oct 20, 3:31 PM | 89¢ | 4 | $12.7K |
| Oct 20, 11:18 AM | 89¢ | 4 | $12.7K |
| Oct 20, 9:24 AM | 88¢ | 4 | $14.5K |
| Oct 20, 6:20 AM | 88¢ | 4 | $14.7K |
| Oct 20, 1:24 AM | 88¢ | 4 | $14.8K |
| Oct 19, 8:43 PM | 88¢ | 4 | $14.8K |
| Oct 19, 5:43 PM | 88¢ | 4 | $14.8K |
| Oct 19, 1:30 PM | 88¢ | 4 | $14.8K |
| Oct 19, 11:21 AM | 88¢ | 4 | $14.8K |
| Oct 19, 7:07 AM | 88¢ | 4 | $14.8K |
| Oct 19, 1:22 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.3K |
| Oct 18, 8:32 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.3K |
| Oct 18, 6:33 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.3K |
| Oct 18, 4:29 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.3K |
| Oct 18, 1:56 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.3K |
| Oct 18, 10:53 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.3K |
| Oct 18, 8:30 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 18, 7:45 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 18, 2:31 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 17, 9:28 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 17, 7:29 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 17, 5:41 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 17, 3:29 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 17, 1:14 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 17, 10:07 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 17, 8:01 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 17, 6:48 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 17, 2:04 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 16, 9:28 PM | 88¢ | 3 | $14.4K |
| Oct 16, 7:26 PM | 88¢ | 3 | $14.4K |
| Oct 16, 4:56 PM | 88¢ | 3 | $14.4K |
| Oct 16, 1:57 PM | 88¢ | 3 | $14.4K |
| Oct 16, 9:59 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 16, 9:04 AM | 88¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 16, 5:03 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 16, 12:05 AM | 88¢ | 3 | $14.4K |
| Oct 15, 7:53 PM | 88¢ | 3 | $14.4K |
| Oct 15, 5:40 PM | 88¢ | 3 | $14.4K |
| Oct 15, 2:21 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $14.5K |
| Oct 15, 10:11 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 15, 9:09 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 15, 5:11 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 15, 12:09 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 14, 7:52 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 14, 4:59 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 14, 1:31 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 14, 9:23 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 14, 8:26 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 14, 2:36 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 13, 9:25 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 13, 6:30 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 13, 1:49 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 13, 11:39 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $11.9K |
| Oct 13, 6:44 AM | 90¢ | 2 | $2.4K |
| Oct 12, 11:12 PM | 90¢ | 2 | $2.4K |
| Oct 12, 6:36 PM | 90¢ | 2 | $2.4K |
| Oct 12, 1:29 PM | 90¢ | 2 | $2.4K |
| Oct 12, 11:32 AM | 90¢ | 2 | $2.4K |
| Oct 12, 2:03 AM | 89¢ | 2 | $2.3K |
| Oct 11, 8:01 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $12.4K |
| Oct 11, 4:38 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $12.4K |
| Oct 11, 12:44 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $12.4K |
| Oct 11, 10:44 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $12.4K |
| Oct 11, 7:28 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $12.4K |
| Oct 11, 1:14 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $12.4K |
| Oct 10, 7:45 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $12.4K |
| Oct 10, 4:16 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $12.4K |
| Oct 10, 12:20 PM | 89¢ | 3 | $12.4K |
| Oct 10, 10:18 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $12.4K |
| Oct 10, 7:19 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $12.4K |
| Oct 10, 1:24 AM | 89¢ | 3 | $12.4K |
| Oct 9, 7:55 PM | 89¢ | 2 | $2.3K |
| Oct 9, 3:49 PM | 89¢ | 2 | $2.3K |
| Oct 9, 11:02 AM | 90¢ | 2 | $2.4K |
| Oct 9, 10:34 AM | 90¢ | 2 | $2.4K |
| Oct 9, 3:25 AM | 89¢ | 2 | $3.9K |
| Oct 8, 9:06 PM | 89¢ | 2 | $2.9K |
| Oct 8, 4:51 PM | 89¢ | 2 | $2.9K |
| Oct 8, 11:39 AM | 89¢ | 2 | $2.7K |
| Oct 8, 11:18 AM | 90¢ | 2 | $2.7K |
Who's in it
7 traders
7 profitable traders are aligned on this outcome. Who they are, their size and their entry price are Pro.
Why it's aligned
The AI read on why these traders are aligned is Pro.
Smart-money fills
Every fill tracked traders made on this market in the last 7 days, with names and size, is Pro.
Aligned is an analytics product. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. We surface publicly available, read-only information about how certain Polymarket traders are positioned. Past performance and current positioning do not guarantee future results. Markets can resolve against even the most profitable traders. Always do your own research. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.