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Live on the board
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Live
Aligned on:
Yes
Live numbers
Updated- Alignment score
- 63High
- Out of 100, with its confidence label
- Price now
- 75¢
- Each share pays $1 if Yes wins
- Smart-money probability
- 76%est.
- Estimated chance this outcome wins
- Edge
- +1.5 ptsest.
- Estimated probability minus the price
- EV per $1
- +2%est.
- Estimated expected value at the price now
- Traders aligned
- 2
- Profitable traders holding this outcome
- Whales
- 0
- Aligned traders with a large position or a top rank
- Capital in
- $22.6K
- What the aligned traders hold in it now
- Ends
- in 161 days
Price history
Breaks in the line are stretches when this bet was off the board and no price was recorded.
Show the data (52 snapshots)
| When (ET) | Price | Traders | Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 9:33 PM | 75¢ | 2 | $22.6K |
| Sep 22, 7:14 PM | 74¢ | 2 | $22.5K |
| Sep 22, 4:29 PM | 74¢ | 2 | $22.3K |
| Sep 22, 1:35 PM | 74¢ | 2 | $22.5K |
| Sep 22, 9:11 AM | 75¢ | 2 | $22.6K |
| Sep 22, 8:51 AM | 75¢ | 2 | $22.6K |
| Sep 22, 3:34 AM | 75¢ | 2 | $22.6K |
| Sep 21, 9:54 PM | 75¢ | 2 | $22.6K |
| Sep 21, 7:40 PM | 75¢ | 2 | $22.8K |
| Sep 21, 4:39 PM | 75¢ | 2 | $22.8K |
| Sep 21, 10:55 AM | 75¢ | 2 | $46.1K |
| Sep 21, 6:38 AM | 73¢ | 2 | $44.9K |
| Sep 21, 1:00 AM | 73¢ | 2 | $44.5K |
| Sep 9, 12:21 PM | 76¢ | 2 | $44.4K |
| Sep 9, 8:52 AM | 76¢ | 2 | $44.7K |
| Sep 9, 7:54 AM | 76¢ | 2 | $44.7K |
| Sep 9, 2:35 AM | 76¢ | 2 | $44.4K |
| Sep 8, 9:26 PM | 76¢ | 2 | $44.7K |
| Sep 8, 7:25 PM | 76¢ | 2 | $44.4K |
| Sep 8, 5:12 PM | 76¢ | 2 | $44.7K |
| Sep 8, 2:06 PM | 76¢ | 2 | $44.7K |
| Sep 8, 10:34 AM | 76¢ | 2 | $44.7K |
| Sep 8, 8:45 AM | 78¢ | 2 | $45.6K |
| Sep 8, 6:00 AM | 77¢ | 2 | $45.3K |
| Sep 8, 1:20 AM | 76¢ | 2 | $44.4K |
| Sep 7, 8:43 PM | 76¢ | 2 | $44.4K |
| Sep 7, 6:42 PM | 76¢ | 2 | $44.7K |
| Sep 7, 3:47 PM | 74¢ | 2 | $43.5K |
| Sep 6, 8:14 PM | 73¢ | 2 | $29K |
| Sep 6, 6:24 PM | 73¢ | 2 | $28.8K |
| Sep 6, 4:42 PM | 73¢ | 2 | $29K |
| Sep 6, 2:20 PM | 77¢ | 2 | $30.6K |
| Aug 30, 1:43 PM | 78¢ | 2 | $45.9K |
| Aug 30, 9:37 AM | 78¢ | 2 | $45.9K |
| Aug 30, 9:18 AM | 78¢ | 2 | $45.9K |
| Aug 30, 3:30 AM | 78¢ | 2 | $45.9K |
| Aug 29, 9:43 PM | 78¢ | 2 | $45.6K |
| Aug 29, 7:33 PM | 78¢ | 2 | $45.6K |
| Aug 29, 5:18 PM | 78¢ | 2 | $45.6K |
| Aug 29, 2:38 PM | 78¢ | 2 | $45.6K |
| Aug 29, 11:14 AM | 75¢ | 2 | $44.1K |
| Aug 29, 9:40 AM | 75¢ | 2 | $44.1K |
| Aug 29, 6:21 AM | 75¢ | 2 | $43.8K |
| Aug 28, 11:20 PM | 75¢ | 2 | $44.1K |
| Aug 28, 5:29 PM | 75¢ | 2 | $43.8K |
| Aug 28, 3:57 PM | 75¢ | 2 | $43.8K |
| Aug 28, 7:27 AM | 74¢ | 2 | $43.3K |
| Aug 27, 8:02 PM | 74¢ | 2 | $43.5K |
| Aug 27, 2:55 PM | 74¢ | 2 | $43.3K |
| Aug 25, 11:57 PM | 74¢ | 2 | $43.3K |
| Aug 25, 10:53 PM | 74¢ | 2 | $43.3K |
| Aug 25, 9:43 PM | 73¢ | 2 | $43K |
Price of Yes at each board refresh. Snapshots are kept for 30 days.
Who's in it
2 traders
2 profitable traders are aligned on this outcome. Who they are, their size and their entry price are Pro.
Why it's aligned
The AI read on why these traders are aligned is Pro.
Smart-money fills
Every fill tracked traders made on this market in the last 7 days, with names and size, is Pro.
Aligned is an analytics product. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. We surface publicly available, read-only information about how certain Polymarket traders are positioned. Past performance and current positioning do not guarantee future results. Markets can resolve against even the most profitable traders. Always do your own research. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.