Launch offerFirst month of Pro is freeYour first month is free — applied automatically· limited to our first membersClaim

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? — Yes · Aligned

Politics

Settled

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

Lost

Aligned on:

Yes

Final

v2 method

Result: Lost; The market resolved against Yes.
Entry price: 50¢; Aligned's price when it first surfaced this outcome
Return: −100%; If bought at the entry price and held to settlement
Entry score: 63
High; Score and confidence when it surfaced
Traders: 2 → 2; At entry → at peak
Surfaced: Oct 8
Settled: Oct 26

Price history

Show the data (21 snapshots)

When (ET)	Price	Traders	Capital
Oct 11, 8:01 PM	49¢	2	$11.3K
Oct 11, 4:38 PM	49¢	2	$11.4K
Oct 11, 12:44 PM	49¢	2	$11.4K
Oct 11, 10:44 AM	50¢	2	$11.5K
Oct 11, 7:28 AM	50¢	2	$11.5K
Oct 11, 1:14 AM	49¢	2	$11.3K
Oct 10, 7:45 PM	49¢	2	$11.3K
Oct 10, 4:16 PM	49¢	2	$11.3K
Oct 10, 12:20 PM	49¢	2	$11.3K
Oct 10, 10:18 AM	49¢	2	$11.3K
Oct 10, 7:19 AM	49¢	2	$11.3K
Oct 10, 1:24 AM	49¢	2	$11.3K
Oct 9, 7:55 PM	50¢	2	$11.5K
Oct 9, 3:49 PM	48¢	2	$11K
Oct 9, 11:02 AM	50¢	2	$11.5K
Oct 9, 10:34 AM	50¢	2	$11.5K
Oct 9, 3:25 AM	47¢	2	$10.8K
Oct 8, 9:06 PM	47¢	2	$10.8K
Oct 8, 4:51 PM	42¢	2	$9.6K
Oct 8, 11:39 AM	41¢	2	$9.4K
Oct 8, 11:18 AM	42¢	2	$9.6K

Price of Yes at each board refresh. Snapshots are kept for 30 days. The dashed line is Aligned's entry price.

Who's in it

0 won · 2 lost

Every tracked trader attributed to this bet while it was on the board, and how it went for each. Traders come and go, so this can be more than the peak count at any one moment.

Each trader's entry price is Pro.Unlock — free first month

View on Polymarket

Aligned is an analytics product. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. We surface publicly available, read-only information about how certain Polymarket traders are positioned. Past performance and current positioning do not guarantee future results. Markets can resolve against even the most profitable traders. Always do your own research. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.