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Board
Economy
Live on the board
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Live
Aligned on:
Yes
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Live numbers
Updated- Alignment score
- 74High
- Out of 100, with its confidence label
- Price now
- 68¢
- Each share pays $1 if Yes wins
- Smart-money probability
- 69%est.
- Estimated chance this outcome wins
- Edge
- +1.8 ptsest.
- Estimated probability minus the price
- EV per $1
- +3%est.
- Estimated expected value at the price now
- Traders aligned
- 2
- Profitable traders holding this outcome
- Whales
- 1
- Aligned traders with a large position or a top rank
- Capital in
- $94K
- What the aligned traders hold in it now
- Ends
- in 78 days
Price history
Breaks in the line are stretches when this bet was off the board and no price was recorded.
Show the data (47 snapshots)
| When (ET) | Price | Traders | Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 9:33 PM | 68¢ | 2 | $94K |
| Sep 20, 8:55 AM | 68¢ | 2 | $74.9K |
| Sep 20, 5:41 AM | 68¢ | 2 | $75K |
| Sep 19, 7:59 PM | 68¢ | 2 | $75K |
| Sep 19, 1:22 PM | 68¢ | 2 | $75K |
| Sep 19, 10:16 AM | 68¢ | 2 | $75K |
| Sep 19, 8:20 AM | 68¢ | 2 | $75K |
| Sep 19, 6:46 AM | 68¢ | 2 | $75K |
| Sep 19, 1:56 AM | 68¢ | 2 | $75K |
| Sep 18, 9:04 PM | 68¢ | 2 | $75K |
| Sep 18, 6:51 PM | 68¢ | 2 | $75K |
| Sep 18, 4:43 PM | 68¢ | 2 | $75K |
| Sep 18, 1:49 PM | 68¢ | 2 | $75K |
| Sep 18, 10:17 AM | 66¢ | 2 | $65.1K |
| Sep 18, 8:48 AM | 66¢ | 2 | $65.1K |
| Sep 18, 5:48 AM | 66¢ | 2 | $65.1K |
| Sep 18, 1:04 AM | 66¢ | 2 | $65.1K |
| Sep 17, 8:25 PM | 66¢ | 2 | $65.1K |
| Sep 17, 6:12 PM | 67¢ | 2 | $66.1K |
| Sep 17, 3:06 PM | 68¢ | 2 | $67.1K |
| Sep 17, 11:14 AM | 68¢ | 2 | $65.7K |
| Sep 17, 9:08 AM | 69¢ | 2 | $65.3K |
| Sep 17, 6:21 AM | 69¢ | 2 | $65.2K |
| Sep 17, 1:28 AM | 69¢ | 2 | $64.9K |
| Sep 16, 8:36 PM | 69¢ | 2 | $64.9K |
| Sep 16, 6:12 PM | 70¢ | 2 | $65.3K |
| Sep 13, 7:23 PM | 56¢ | 2 | $47.4K |
| Sep 13, 2:53 PM | 56¢ | 3 | $46.9K |
| Sep 13, 12:20 PM | 56¢ | 3 | $46.9K |
| Sep 13, 9:10 AM | 56¢ | 3 | $46.9K |
| Sep 13, 8:01 AM | 56¢ | 3 | $46.9K |
| Sep 13, 2:13 AM | 56¢ | 3 | $46.9K |
| Sep 12, 9:06 PM | 56¢ | 3 | $46.9K |
| Sep 12, 7:12 PM | 56¢ | 3 | $46.9K |
| Sep 12, 5:20 PM | 56¢ | 3 | $46.9K |
| Sep 12, 2:47 PM | 56¢ | 3 | $46.9K |
| Sep 12, 12:32 PM | 56¢ | 3 | $46.9K |
| Sep 12, 9:42 AM | 56¢ | 3 | $46.9K |
| Sep 12, 8:01 AM | 56¢ | 3 | $46.9K |
| Sep 12, 6:28 AM | 56¢ | 3 | $47.8K |
| Sep 12, 1:50 AM | 56¢ | 3 | $47.8K |
| Sep 11, 9:09 PM | 56¢ | 3 | $47.8K |
| Sep 11, 7:07 PM | 59¢ | 2 | $47.8K |
| Sep 11, 4:48 PM | 59¢ | 2 | $47.8K |
| Sep 10, 1:15 PM | 51¢ | 2 | $40.4K |
| Sep 10, 5:07 AM | 44¢ | 2 | $1.9K |
| Sep 10, 12:29 AM | 44¢ | 2 | $1.9K |
Price of Yes at each board refresh. Snapshots are kept for 30 days. The dashed line is Aligned's entry price.
Who's in it
2 traders
Smart-money fills
3 fills · last 7 days
Aligned is an analytics product. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. We surface publicly available, read-only information about how certain Polymarket traders are positioned. Past performance and current positioning do not guarantee future results. Markets can resolve against even the most profitable traders. Always do your own research. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.