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Track record
Politics
Settled
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Won
Aligned on:
Yes
Final
v2 method
- Result
- Won
- The market resolved for Yes.
- Entry price
- 19¢
- Aligned's price when it first surfaced this outcome
- Return
- +441%
- If bought at the entry price and held to settlement
- Entry score
- 71Medium
- Score and confidence when it surfaced
- Traders
- 4 → 5
- At entry → at peak
- Surfaced
- Settled
Price history
Breaks in the line are stretches when this bet was off the board and no price was recorded.
Show the data (72 snapshots)
| When (ET) | Price | Traders | Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 6:29 PM | 45¢ | 5 | $60.7K |
| Oct 25, 3:59 PM | 23¢ | 5 | $29.5K |
| Oct 25, 1:33 PM | 16¢ | 5 | $19.7K |
| Oct 25, 9:56 AM | 19¢ | 4 | $21K |
| Oct 25, 9:01 AM | 18¢ | 3 | $19.5K |
| Oct 25, 5:40 AM | 17¢ | 3 | $18.1K |
| Oct 25, 12:51 AM | 16¢ | 3 | $15.9K |
| Oct 24, 5:56 PM | 15¢ | 3 | $13.6K |
| Oct 24, 3:30 PM | 14¢ | 2 | $11.2K |
| Oct 24, 1:00 PM | 14¢ | 2 | $11.8K |
| Oct 24, 9:37 AM | 17¢ | 3 | $15.1K |
| Oct 24, 8:30 AM | 17¢ | 3 | $14.2K |
| Oct 24, 5:35 AM | 18¢ | 3 | $15.7K |
| Oct 24, 1:07 AM | 17¢ | 3 | $14.8K |
| Oct 23, 8:45 PM | 21¢ | 2 | $15.6K |
| Oct 23, 6:02 PM | 21¢ | 2 | $15.6K |
| Oct 23, 3:00 PM | 20¢ | 2 | $14.3K |
| Oct 23, 10:54 AM | 21¢ | 2 | $14.7K |
| Oct 23, 9:09 AM | 21¢ | 2 | $14.7K |
| Oct 23, 5:56 AM | 21¢ | 2 | $15.1K |
| Oct 22, 5:39 PM | 20¢ | 2 | $14.9K |
| Oct 22, 2:00 PM | 20¢ | 2 | $14.5K |
| Oct 22, 9:33 AM | 20¢ | 2 | $15.5K |
| Oct 22, 9:08 AM | 20¢ | 2 | $15.5K |
| Oct 22, 3:26 AM | 17¢ | 3 | $14.8K |
| Oct 21, 9:56 PM | 17¢ | 3 | $14.8K |
| Oct 21, 7:41 PM | 18¢ | 2 | $13.1K |
| Oct 21, 4:33 PM | 20¢ | 2 | $14.5K |
| Oct 21, 12:59 PM | 21¢ | 4 | $25.3K |
| Oct 21, 9:32 AM | 18¢ | 3 | $13.6K |
| Oct 21, 7:54 AM | 17¢ | 3 | $12.9K |
| Oct 21, 2:04 AM | 17¢ | 3 | $12.1K |
| Oct 20, 9:02 PM | 18¢ | 3 | $12.7K |
| Oct 20, 6:42 PM | 17¢ | 3 | $19.6K |
| Oct 20, 3:31 PM | 18¢ | 3 | $20.6K |
| Oct 20, 11:18 AM | 19¢ | 2 | $19.6K |
| Oct 20, 9:24 AM | 19¢ | 3 | $21.7K |
| Oct 20, 6:20 AM | 19¢ | 3 | $21.7K |
| Oct 20, 1:24 AM | 19¢ | 3 | $21.3K |
| Oct 19, 8:43 PM | 21¢ | 3 | $21K |
| Oct 19, 5:43 PM | 21¢ | 3 | $21K |
| Oct 19, 1:30 PM | 21¢ | 3 | $20.7K |
| Oct 19, 11:21 AM | 21¢ | 3 | $21.2K |
| Oct 19, 7:07 AM | 21¢ | 3 | $20.7K |
| Oct 19, 1:22 AM | 21¢ | 3 | $20.7K |
| Oct 18, 8:32 PM | 18¢ | 3 | $18.7K |
| Oct 18, 6:33 PM | 19¢ | 3 | $19.7K |
| Oct 18, 4:29 PM | 18¢ | 3 | $18.6K |
| Oct 18, 1:56 PM | 18¢ | 3 | $18.6K |
| Oct 18, 10:53 AM | 19¢ | 3 | $19.1K |
| Oct 18, 8:30 AM | 18¢ | 3 | $18.6K |
| Oct 18, 7:45 AM | 18¢ | 3 | $18.6K |
| Oct 18, 2:31 AM | 18¢ | 3 | $18.6K |
| Oct 17, 9:28 PM | 19¢ | 3 | $19.6K |
| Oct 17, 7:29 PM | 21¢ | 4 | $13.8K |
| Oct 17, 5:41 PM | 21¢ | 4 | $13.6K |
| Oct 17, 3:29 PM | 21¢ | 4 | $13.4K |
| Oct 17, 1:14 PM | 21¢ | 4 | $13.4K |
| Oct 17, 10:07 AM | 21¢ | 4 | $12.8K |
| Oct 17, 8:01 AM | 21¢ | 4 | $12.8K |
| Oct 17, 6:48 AM | 21¢ | 4 | $12.7K |
| Oct 17, 2:04 AM | 21¢ | 4 | $12.6K |
| Oct 16, 9:28 PM | 21¢ | 4 | $12.1K |
| Oct 16, 7:26 PM | 21¢ | 4 | $11.7K |
| Oct 16, 4:56 PM | 21¢ | 3 | $11.2K |
| Oct 16, 1:57 PM | 19¢ | 3 | $10.4K |
| Oct 16, 9:59 AM | 20¢ | 3 | $10.5K |
| Oct 16, 9:04 AM | 19¢ | 3 | $10.2K |
| Oct 16, 5:03 AM | 19¢ | 3 | $10.2K |
| Oct 15, 7:53 PM | 19¢ | 3 | $10.5K |
| Oct 15, 5:40 PM | 21¢ | 3 | $11K |
| Oct 15, 10:11 AM | 19¢ | 4 | $10.1K |
Who's in it
8 won · 0 lost
Every tracked trader attributed to this bet while it was on the board, and how it went for each. Traders come and go, so this can be more than the peak count at any one moment.
Aligned is an analytics product. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. We surface publicly available, read-only information about how certain Polymarket traders are positioned. Past performance and current positioning do not guarantee future results. Markets can resolve against even the most profitable traders. Always do your own research. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.