Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Won

Aligned on:

Final

v2 method

Result: Won; The market resolved for No.
Entry price: 81¢; Aligned's price when it first surfaced this outcome
Return: +24%; If bought at the entry price and held to settlement
Entry score: 50
Low; Score and confidence when it surfaced
Traders: 2 → 4; At entry → at peak
Surfaced: Sep 30
Settled: Oct 31

Price history

Show the data (128 snapshots)

When (ET)	Price	Traders	Capital
Oct 27, 2:22 PM	93¢	2	$37.3K
Oct 27, 10:04 AM	91¢	2	$36.5K
Oct 27, 8:44 AM	91¢	2	$36.5K
Oct 27, 2:43 AM	91¢	2	$36.6K
Oct 26, 9:20 PM	91¢	2	$36.4K
Oct 26, 5:54 PM	91¢	2	$36.5K
Oct 26, 1:34 PM	92¢	2	$36.7K
Oct 26, 10:55 AM	90¢	2	$36K
Oct 26, 7:26 AM	90¢	2	$36.1K
Oct 26, 1:23 AM	87¢	2	$35K
Oct 25, 8:39 PM	87¢	2	$34.9K
Oct 25, 6:29 PM	86¢	2	$34.5K
Oct 25, 3:59 PM	92¢	2	$36.7K
Oct 25, 1:33 PM	94¢	2	$37.4K
Oct 25, 9:56 AM	92¢	2	$36.8K
Oct 25, 9:01 AM	93¢	2	$37K
Oct 25, 5:40 AM	92¢	2	$36.8K
Oct 25, 12:51 AM	92¢	2	$36.8K
Oct 24, 8:12 PM	92¢	2	$36.8K
Oct 24, 5:56 PM	92¢	2	$36.8K
Oct 24, 3:30 PM	92¢	2	$36.8K
Oct 24, 1:00 PM	92¢	2	$36.6K
Oct 24, 9:37 AM	92¢	2	$36.6K
Oct 24, 8:30 AM	91¢	2	$36.4K
Oct 24, 5:35 AM	94¢	2	$37.4K
Oct 24, 1:07 AM	91¢	2	$36.4K
Oct 23, 8:45 PM	90¢	2	$36.2K
Oct 23, 6:02 PM	90¢	2	$36.2K
Oct 23, 3:00 PM	90¢	2	$36.2K
Oct 23, 10:54 AM	90¢	2	$36.2K
Oct 23, 9:09 AM	90¢	2	$36.2K
Oct 23, 5:56 AM	87¢	2	$35K
Oct 23, 12:59 AM	87¢	2	$35.2K
Oct 22, 8:11 PM	90¢	2	$36.2K
Oct 22, 5:39 PM	90¢	2	$36.2K
Oct 22, 2:00 PM	89¢	2	$36K
Oct 22, 9:33 AM	85¢	2	$34.4K
Oct 22, 9:08 AM	85¢	2	$34.4K
Oct 22, 3:26 AM	83¢	2	$33.4K
Oct 21, 9:56 PM	82¢	2	$33K
Oct 21, 7:41 PM	83¢	2	$33.4K
Oct 21, 4:33 PM	83¢	2	$33.4K
Oct 21, 12:59 PM	85¢	2	$34.2K
Oct 21, 9:32 AM	84¢	2	$34K
Oct 21, 7:54 AM	82¢	3	$34.2K
Oct 21, 2:04 AM	84¢	2	$34K
Oct 20, 9:02 PM	82¢	2	$33K
Oct 20, 6:42 PM	82¢	2	$33K
Oct 20, 3:31 PM	81¢	2	$32.6K
Oct 20, 11:18 AM	77¢	3	$31.7K
Oct 20, 9:24 AM	76¢	3	$31.4K
Oct 20, 6:20 AM	77¢	3	$31.7K
Oct 20, 1:24 AM	76¢	3	$31.4K
Oct 19, 8:43 PM	76¢	2	$30.6K
Oct 19, 5:43 PM	77¢	2	$31K
Oct 19, 1:30 PM	73¢	2	$29.4K
Oct 19, 11:21 AM	72¢	3	$29.6K
Oct 19, 7:07 AM	73¢	3	$30K
Oct 19, 1:22 AM	72¢	2	$29.1K
Oct 18, 8:32 PM	72¢	2	$29.4K
Oct 18, 6:33 PM	72¢	2	$29.4K
Oct 18, 4:29 PM	77¢	2	$31.2K
Oct 18, 1:56 PM	77¢	2	$31.2K
Oct 18, 10:53 AM	75¢	3	$31K
Oct 18, 8:30 AM	77¢	3	$31.9K
Oct 18, 7:45 AM	78¢	3	$32.3K
Oct 18, 2:31 AM	77¢	3	$32.1K
Oct 17, 9:28 PM	79¢	3	$32.9K
Oct 17, 7:29 PM	79¢	3	$32.9K
Oct 17, 5:41 PM	80¢	3	$33.2K
Oct 17, 3:29 PM	79¢	3	$33K
Oct 17, 1:14 PM	79¢	2	$32.1K
Oct 17, 10:07 AM	77¢	3	$31.9K
Oct 17, 8:01 AM	75¢	3	$31.1K
Oct 17, 6:48 AM	76¢	3	$31.5K
Oct 17, 2:04 AM	73¢	2	$29.8K
Oct 16, 9:28 PM	74¢	3	$30.9K
Oct 16, 7:26 PM	74¢	3	$30.9K
Oct 16, 4:56 PM	73¢	2	$29.8K
Oct 16, 1:57 PM	75¢	3	$31.3K
Oct 16, 9:59 AM	75¢	3	$31.1K
Oct 16, 9:04 AM	73¢	3	$30.2K
Oct 16, 5:03 AM	71¢	3	$29.6K
Oct 16, 12:05 AM	71¢	2	$29K
Oct 15, 7:53 PM	71¢	2	$28.8K
Oct 15, 5:40 PM	71¢	2	$28.8K
Oct 15, 2:21 PM	72¢	2	$29.2K
Oct 15, 10:11 AM	73¢	3	$30.2K
Oct 15, 9:09 AM	74¢	3	$30.7K
Oct 15, 5:11 AM	71¢	3	$29.6K
Oct 15, 12:09 AM	70¢	3	$29.3K
Oct 14, 7:52 PM	69¢	3	$28.7K
Oct 14, 4:59 PM	70¢	3	$29.3K
Oct 14, 1:31 PM	72¢	3	$29.9K
Oct 14, 9:23 AM	70¢	3	$29.1K
Oct 14, 8:26 AM	72¢	3	$29.9K
Oct 14, 2:36 AM	72¢	3	$29.9K
Oct 13, 9:25 PM	71¢	3	$29.7K
Oct 13, 6:30 PM	72¢	3	$29.9K
Oct 13, 1:49 PM	74¢	3	$30.8K
Oct 13, 11:39 AM	72¢	3	$29.9K
Oct 13, 6:44 AM	74¢	3	$30.8K
Oct 12, 11:12 PM	74¢	3	$30.8K
Oct 12, 6:36 PM	77¢	3	$32.2K
Oct 12, 1:29 PM	74¢	3	$30.7K
Oct 12, 11:32 AM	74¢	3	$30.7K
Oct 12, 2:03 AM	75¢	2	$30.4K
Oct 11, 8:01 PM	71¢	2	$28.8K
Oct 11, 4:38 PM	71¢	2	$28.8K
Oct 11, 12:44 PM	70¢	3	$29.1K
Oct 11, 10:44 AM	70¢	3	$29.1K
Oct 11, 7:28 AM	70¢	3	$29.1K
Oct 11, 1:14 AM	73¢	4	$31.1K
Oct 10, 7:45 PM	71¢	4	$30.3K
Oct 10, 4:16 PM	75¢	3	$26.2K
Oct 10, 12:20 PM	75¢	3	$26.2K
Oct 10, 10:18 AM	75¢	3	$26.2K
Oct 10, 7:19 AM	75¢	3	$26.2K
Oct 10, 1:24 AM	75¢	3	$26.2K
Oct 9, 7:55 PM	74¢	3	$26K
Oct 9, 3:49 PM	73¢	3	$25.6K
Oct 9, 11:02 AM	75¢	3	$26K
Oct 9, 10:34 AM	75¢	3	$26K
Oct 9, 3:25 AM	75¢	3	$26K
Oct 8, 9:06 PM	75¢	3	$26K
Oct 8, 4:51 PM	74¢	3	$25.6K
Oct 8, 11:39 AM	74¢	3	$25.6K
Oct 8, 11:18 AM	74¢	3	$25.6K

Who's in it

4 won · 0 lost

Every tracked trader attributed to this bet while it was on the board, and how it went for each. Traders come and go, so this can be more than the peak count at any one moment.

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