Loading
Track record
Politics
Settled
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
Won
Aligned on:
No
Final
v2 method
- Result
- Won
- The market resolved for No.
- Entry price
- 85¢
- Aligned's price when it first surfaced this outcome
- Return
- +18%
- If bought at the entry price and held to settlement
- Entry score
- 53Medium
- Score and confidence when it surfaced
- Traders
- 2 → 2
- At entry → at peak
- Surfaced
- Settled
Price history
No price history for this bet. Aligned keeps 30 days of snapshots, and only while a bet is on the board.
Who's in it
3 won · 0 lost
Every tracked trader attributed to this bet while it was on the board, and how it went for each. Traders come and go, so this can be more than the peak count at any one moment.
Smart-money fills
Every fill tracked traders made on this market in the last 7 days, with names and size, is Pro.
Aligned is an analytics product. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. We surface publicly available, read-only information about how certain Polymarket traders are positioned. Past performance and current positioning do not guarantee future results. Markets can resolve against even the most profitable traders. Always do your own research. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.