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Track record
Politics
Settled
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
Won
Aligned on:
Yes
Final
v2 method
- Result
- Won
- The market resolved for Yes.
- Entry price
- 85¢
- Aligned's price when it first surfaced this outcome
- Return
- +18%
- If bought at the entry price and held to settlement
- Entry score
- 50Medium
- Score and confidence when it surfaced
- Traders
- 2 → 5
- At entry → at peak
- Surfaced
- Settled
Price history
Breaks in the line are stretches when this bet was off the board and no price was recorded.
Show the data (53 snapshots)
| When (ET) | Price | Traders | Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 5:48 AM | 44¢ | 4 | $15.5K |
| Sep 18, 1:04 AM | 48¢ | 5 | $18.6K |
| Sep 17, 8:25 PM | 57¢ | 4 | $20.5K |
| Sep 17, 6:12 PM | 62¢ | 3 | $12.7K |
| Sep 17, 3:06 PM | 76¢ | 3 | $8.4K |
| Sep 16, 2:08 AM | 83¢ | 2 | $20.3K |
| Sep 15, 9:13 PM | 84¢ | 2 | $20.4K |
| Sep 15, 6:48 PM | 84¢ | 2 | $20.4K |
| Sep 15, 3:51 PM | 84¢ | 2 | $20.4K |
| Sep 15, 2:47 PM | 84¢ | 2 | $20.4K |
| Sep 15, 12:42 PM | 84¢ | 2 | $20.4K |
| Sep 15, 9:14 AM | 84¢ | 2 | $20.4K |
| Sep 15, 7:48 AM | 84¢ | 2 | $20.4K |
| Sep 15, 2:02 AM | 84¢ | 2 | $20.4K |
| Sep 14, 8:56 PM | 84¢ | 2 | $20.4K |
| Sep 14, 6:32 PM | 84¢ | 2 | $20.4K |
| Sep 14, 3:10 PM | 82¢ | 3 | $20.7K |
| Sep 14, 10:50 AM | 82¢ | 3 | $20.8K |
| Sep 14, 9:52 AM | 82¢ | 3 | $20.8K |
| Sep 14, 2:56 AM | 82¢ | 3 | $20.8K |
| Sep 13, 9:28 PM | 83¢ | 4 | $25.2K |
| Sep 13, 7:23 PM | 83¢ | 4 | $26.2K |
| Sep 13, 2:53 PM | 82¢ | 3 | $20.9K |
| Sep 13, 12:20 PM | 82¢ | 3 | $20.9K |
| Sep 13, 9:10 AM | 82¢ | 3 | $20.9K |
| Sep 13, 8:01 AM | 83¢ | 4 | $26.3K |
| Sep 13, 2:13 AM | 82¢ | 3 | $21.1K |
| Sep 12, 9:06 PM | 83¢ | 4 | $26.4K |
| Sep 12, 7:12 PM | 83¢ | 4 | $26.4K |
| Sep 12, 5:20 PM | 82¢ | 4 | $26.1K |
| Sep 12, 2:47 PM | 82¢ | 4 | $26.3K |
| Sep 12, 12:32 PM | 82¢ | 4 | $26.3K |
| Sep 12, 9:42 AM | 82¢ | 4 | $26.3K |
| Sep 12, 8:01 AM | 82¢ | 4 | $26.4K |
| Sep 12, 6:28 AM | 82¢ | 4 | $26.4K |
| Sep 12, 1:50 AM | 82¢ | 4 | $26.3K |
| Sep 11, 9:09 PM | 82¢ | 4 | $26.3K |
| Sep 11, 7:07 PM | 82¢ | 4 | $26.3K |
| Sep 11, 4:48 PM | 81¢ | 4 | $26.1K |
| Sep 11, 1:46 PM | 81¢ | 4 | $26.1K |
| Sep 11, 10:11 AM | 81¢ | 4 | $26.1K |
| Sep 11, 8:44 AM | 81¢ | 4 | $26.1K |
| Sep 11, 5:45 AM | 81¢ | 4 | $26K |
| Sep 11, 1:09 AM | 83¢ | 4 | $26.6K |
| Sep 10, 8:29 PM | 84¢ | 4 | $26.9K |
| Sep 10, 6:28 PM | 83¢ | 4 | $26.8K |
| Sep 10, 3:59 PM | 83¢ | 4 | $26.6K |
| Sep 10, 1:15 PM | 85¢ | 4 | $26.9K |
| Sep 10, 9:38 AM | 76¢ | 3 | $17.2K |
| Sep 10, 8:47 AM | 76¢ | 3 | $17.3K |
| Sep 10, 5:07 AM | 76¢ | 2 | $14.3K |
| Sep 10, 12:29 AM | 78¢ | 2 | $14.5K |
| Sep 9, 7:59 PM | 78¢ | 2 | $14.5K |
Price of Yes at each board refresh. Snapshots are kept for 30 days.
Who's in it
8 won · 0 lost
Every tracked trader attributed to this bet while it was on the board, and how it went for each. Traders come and go, so this can be more than the peak count at any one moment.
Smart-money fills
Every fill tracked traders made on this market in the last 7 days, with names and size, is Pro.
Aligned is an analytics product. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. We surface publicly available, read-only information about how certain Polymarket traders are positioned. Past performance and current positioning do not guarantee future results. Markets can resolve against even the most profitable traders. Always do your own research. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.