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Track record
Politics
Settled
Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?
Lost
Aligned on:
No
Final
v2 method
- Result
- Lost
- The market resolved against No.
- Entry price
- 74¢
- Aligned's price when it first surfaced this outcome
- Return
- −100%
- If bought at the entry price and held to settlement
- Entry score
- 63High
- Score and confidence when it surfaced
- Traders
- 2 → 2
- At entry → at peak
- Surfaced
- Settled
Price history
Breaks in the line are stretches when this bet was off the board and no price was recorded.
Show the data (3 snapshots)
| When (ET) | Price | Traders | Capital |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 3:57 PM | 70¢ | 2 | $4.1K |
| Aug 27, 8:02 PM | 75¢ | 2 | $1.8K |
| Aug 27, 2:55 PM | 74¢ | 2 | $1.8K |
Price of No at each board refresh. Snapshots are kept for 30 days. The dashed line is Aligned's entry price.
Who's in it
0 won · 2 lost
Every tracked trader attributed to this bet while it was on the board, and how it went for each. Traders come and go, so this can be more than the peak count at any one moment.
Each trader's entry price is Pro.Unlock — free first month
Aligned is an analytics product. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. We surface publicly available, read-only information about how certain Polymarket traders are positioned. Past performance and current positioning do not guarantee future results. Markets can resolve against even the most profitable traders. Always do your own research. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.