US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Lost

Aligned on:

Yes

Final

v2 method

Result: Lost; The market resolved against Yes.
Entry price: 79¢; Aligned's price when it first surfaced this outcome
Return: −100%; If bought at the entry price and held to settlement
Entry score: 63
High; Score and confidence when it surfaced
Traders: 2 → 5; At entry → at peak
Surfaced: Oct 19
Settled: Nov 3

Price history

Breaks in the line are stretches when this bet was off the board and no price was recorded.

Show the data (59 snapshots)

When (ET)	Price	Traders	Capital
Oct 30, 12:36 PM	88¢	2	$8.1K
Oct 30, 10:53 AM	90¢	2	$8.2K
Oct 30, 5:48 AM	89¢	2	$9.9K
Oct 29, 10:50 PM	84¢	2	$9.4K
Oct 29, 7:23 PM	73¢	2	$8.1K
Oct 28, 8:16 PM	94¢	2	$4.2K
Oct 28, 11:08 AM	91¢	2	$4K
Oct 28, 10:55 AM	91¢	2	$4K
Oct 27, 9:46 PM	91¢	2	$2K
Oct 27, 6:31 PM	89¢	3	$16K
Oct 27, 2:22 PM	90¢	3	$15.9K
Oct 27, 10:04 AM	89¢	3	$20.8K
Oct 27, 8:44 AM	89¢	3	$21.2K
Oct 27, 2:43 AM	86¢	3	$21.8K
Oct 26, 9:20 PM	85¢	3	$43.9K
Oct 26, 5:54 PM	84¢	3	$43.6K
Oct 26, 1:34 PM	83¢	4	$44.1K
Oct 26, 10:55 AM	83¢	4	$44.1K
Oct 26, 7:26 AM	82¢	4	$43.6K
Oct 26, 1:23 AM	82¢	3	$36.1K
Oct 25, 8:39 PM	79¢	5	$43.8K
Oct 25, 6:29 PM	76¢	4	$35.5K
Oct 25, 3:59 PM	81¢	2	$34.8K
Oct 25, 1:33 PM	82¢	2	$35.3K
Oct 25, 9:56 AM	79¢	2	$34K
Oct 25, 9:01 AM	78¢	2	$33.5K
Oct 25, 5:40 AM	81¢	2	$34.8K
Oct 25, 12:51 AM	80¢	2	$34.4K
Oct 24, 8:12 PM	79¢	2	$33.8K
Oct 24, 5:56 PM	78¢	2	$33.6K
Oct 24, 3:30 PM	77¢	2	$33.3K
Oct 24, 1:00 PM	75¢	3	$34.5K
Oct 24, 5:35 AM	74¢	3	$33.8K
Oct 24, 1:07 AM	74¢	3	$33.3K
Oct 23, 8:45 PM	72¢	3	$32.1K
Oct 23, 6:02 PM	68¢	3	$23.6K
Oct 23, 3:00 PM	74¢	2	$17.3K
Oct 23, 10:54 AM	76¢	2	$16.4K
Oct 23, 9:09 AM	76¢	2	$16.4K
Oct 23, 5:56 AM	74¢	2	$16.1K
Oct 23, 12:59 AM	74¢	2	$16K
Oct 22, 8:11 PM	74¢	2	$16K
Oct 22, 5:39 PM	73¢	2	$15.7K
Oct 22, 2:00 PM	73¢	3	$16.7K
Oct 22, 9:33 AM	68¢	2	$14.6K
Oct 22, 9:08 AM	67¢	2	$14.4K
Oct 21, 7:41 PM	66¢	2	$11.3K
Oct 21, 4:33 PM	73¢	3	$13.6K
Oct 21, 12:59 PM	80¢	3	$7.1K
Oct 21, 9:32 AM	80¢	3	$7.1K
Oct 21, 7:54 AM	80¢	3	$7.1K
Oct 20, 6:42 PM	79¢	2	$2.6K
Oct 20, 3:31 PM	80¢	2	$2.6K
Oct 20, 11:18 AM	78¢	2	$2.5K
Oct 20, 9:24 AM	78¢	2	$2.5K
Oct 20, 6:20 AM	77¢	2	$2.5K
Oct 20, 1:24 AM	77¢	2	$2.5K
Oct 19, 8:43 PM	78¢	2	$2.5K
Oct 19, 5:43 PM	79¢	2	$2.6K

Who's in it

0 won · 7 lost

Every tracked trader attributed to this bet while it was on the board, and how it went for each. Traders come and go, so this can be more than the peak count at any one moment.

Smart-money fills

Every fill tracked traders made on this market in the last 7 days, with names and size, is Pro.

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Aligned is an analytics product. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. We surface publicly available, read-only information about how certain Polymarket traders are positioned. Past performance and current positioning do not guarantee future results. Markets can resolve against even the most profitable traders. Always do your own research. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.