Will Julianne Moore win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?

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Aligned on:

Live numbers

Updated 1h ago

Alignment score: 59
High; Out of 100, with its confidence label
Price now: 35¢; Each share pays $1 if No wins
Smart-money probability: 37%est.; Estimated chance this outcome wins
Edge: +2.2 ptsest.; Estimated probability minus the price
EV per $1: +6%est.; Estimated expected value at the price now
Traders aligned: 2; Profitable traders holding this outcome
Whales: 0; Aligned traders with a large position or a top rank
Capital in: $3.9K; What the aligned traders hold in it now
Ends: Jul 1, 2027; in 282 days

Price history

Breaks in the line are stretches when this bet was off the board and no price was recorded.

Show the data (31 snapshots)

When (ET)	Price	Traders	Capital
Sep 22, 9:33 PM	35¢	2	$3.9K
Sep 22, 7:14 PM	32¢	2	$3.5K
Sep 22, 4:29 PM	34¢	2	$3.8K
Sep 22, 1:35 PM	33¢	2	$3.7K
Sep 22, 9:11 AM	32¢	2	$3.5K
Sep 22, 8:51 AM	32¢	2	$3.5K
Sep 22, 3:34 AM	31¢	2	$3.4K
Sep 21, 9:54 PM	31¢	2	$3.4K
Sep 20, 8:01 PM	31¢	2	$3.4K
Sep 20, 5:46 PM	30¢	2	$3.4K
Sep 20, 3:29 PM	28¢	2	$3.2K
Sep 20, 9:43 AM	31¢	2	$3.5K
Sep 20, 8:55 AM	31¢	2	$3.5K
Sep 20, 5:41 AM	30¢	2	$3.4K
Sep 20, 12:46 AM	30¢	2	$3.3K
Sep 19, 7:59 PM	32¢	2	$3.5K
Sep 19, 5:47 PM	32¢	2	$3.5K
Sep 19, 3:31 PM	32¢	2	$3.5K
Sep 19, 1:22 PM	31¢	2	$3.5K
Sep 19, 10:16 AM	33¢	2	$3.7K
Sep 19, 8:20 AM	33¢	2	$3.7K
Sep 19, 6:46 AM	33¢	2	$3.7K
Sep 19, 1:56 AM	33¢	2	$3.7K
Sep 18, 9:04 PM	33¢	2	$3.7K
Sep 18, 6:51 PM	33¢	2	$3.7K
Sep 18, 4:43 PM	33¢	2	$3.7K
Sep 18, 1:49 PM	34¢	2	$3.8K
Sep 18, 10:17 AM	34¢	2	$3.8K
Sep 18, 8:48 AM	34¢	2	$3.8K
Sep 18, 5:48 AM	34¢	2	$3.8K
Sep 18, 1:04 AM	34¢	2	$3.8K

Price of No at each board refresh. Snapshots are kept for 30 days. The dashed line is Aligned's entry price.

Who's in it

2 traders

2 profitable traders are aligned on this outcome. Who they are, their size and their entry price are Pro.

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Why it's aligned

The AI read on why these traders are aligned is Pro.

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Smart-money fills

Every fill tracked traders made on this market in the last 7 days, with names and size, is Pro.

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Aligned is an analytics product. Nothing here is financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell anything. We surface publicly available, read-only information about how certain Polymarket traders are positioned. Past performance and current positioning do not guarantee future results. Markets can resolve against even the most profitable traders. Always do your own research. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.